Indian Ocean meet of China: A step towards creeping expansion

China’s objective to organise an Indian Ocean meet through China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) was obviously to enhance its foot-prints in the Indian Ocean with the objective of establishing its hegemony in this region. Of late, increased movements of the Chinese ships and submarines were observed in the Indian Ocean. The Chinese experts were indicating that China needed three lifelines in the Indian Ocean. After creating military bases in the South China Sea’s artificial islands, this was expected. Chin has already established a military base in Djibouti and Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota are with China and they can be used for military purposes. In Myanmar, it has intensified its efforts to complete the Kyaukpyu port and in Bangladesh four Chinese companies have shown interest in the construction of Metro rail network near the Chittagong Port. In Maldives, China keeps on trying to have a base. In Seychelles, China has is investing in projects having strategic value. While the work on ‘nine programmes project pool’ has been improved, a Chinese firm is constructing the Seychelles Broadcasting Corporation building that would give ample opportunities to use it for the Chinese propaganda.

A press release by CIDCA, indicated that high-level representatives of 19 countries, including Indonesia, Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Afghanistan, Iran, Oman, South Africa, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mauritius, Djibouti, Australia and representatives of three international organizations were present at the hybrid forum on the 21 st November. The significant aspect is that the foreign ministries of key littoral states were bypassed by Beijing while sending invites. Those who attended were either officials from the client states or individuals from other countries. While the Maldives government was approached, the foreign ministries of Madagascar, Sri Lanka and Mauritius were not informed.

Both Maldives and Australia denied their involvement in the above Chinese meet. The Maldives Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Government of Maldives did not participate in the above-mentioned Forum, and had communicated its decision not to participate to the Embassy of the People`s Republic of China to the Maldives. The Australian High Commissioner to India, Barry O`Farrell tweeted: "Contrary to media reporting, no Australian Government official attended the Kunming China-Indian Ocean Forum on Development Cooperation.”

A look at some of those who attended throws light on the Chinese mischievous tactics of deploying ‘influenced’ persons in foreign countries to serve its purpose and also to identify those who could be targeted to support the Chinese objectives. From Maldives, the virtual meeting was attended by Mohammed Waheed, a pro-China former President of Maldives, who threw out Indian GMR from an airport operations contract during his tenure. From Australia, the meeting was attended by former prime minister Kevin Rudd in his capacity as head of a think tank that also has an India chapter.

Known to be a pro-Chinese in approach, it was during his tenure as Australian PM that Australia walked out of the Malabar 2008 naval exercises after China objected. Dr K M Azam Chowdhury is an academician, who attended from Bangladesh. Indian Government was not informed but the Chinese Foreign Ministry indicate that some businessmen and a few academicians attended. China organised the third China-South-Asia Cooperation Forum meet on the 19 th November and some attended the breakout event on the China-Indian Ocean meet. It was a deceitful ploy to inveigle unaware persons into attending the Chinese meet.

The meet was camouflaged as an academic and business conference with the theme: ‘Shared Development: Theory and Practice from the Perspective of the Blue Economy’. The ulterior motive was to build support for the Chinese expansion in the region in an institutionalised manner. It is well known that China through influence operations try to create support base among the local population in foreign countries. The Chinese method for influence operations was succinctly described in a dossier entitled “China’s elite capture” compiled by the former MI 6 officer Christopher Steele that provides details of manipulations of China to penetrate the strategic and influential community to manipulate them to serve China’s overall strategic objectives. He called them “useful idiots”, who are carefully brainwashed by first obtaining their data and then bombard them with the specially designed programmes through various social media platforms and other propaganda means.

Last year, three reports surfaced which also pointed out how the Chinese agencies were penetrating into the strategic communities in the target countries. First, the US National Counterintelligence and Security Centre in its July 2022 report, revealed the extensive PRC activities to manipulate the US state and local leaders to support the policies that are favourable to the PRC. It indicated that the CCP is aware that the U.S. state and local leaders enjoy a degree of independence from Washington and it exploits this to turn them into “its proxies to advocate the policies that Beijing desires”. The PRC influence operations could be “deceptive and coercive” under the cover of benign business opportunities or people to people contacts.

Second, in India, the Law and Society Alliance brought out in Sept 2021 how the Chinese influence operations are manipulating the perceptions of targets in different sectors. It concluded that “China’s subtle attempts to infiltrate the Indian society through the use of a number of alternative means such as financial investments, fellowships, travel courtesies and coercion can be extremely damaging in the long run.”

Third, the Institute for Strategic Research of the French Ministry for the Armed Forces in October 2021 presented a study titled “The Chinese Influence Operations- A Machiavelli Moment” indicating that ‘the CCP’s influence operations have become considerably tougher in recent.

China uses different organisations for influence operations abroad. The CCP’s United Front Work Department (UFWD) plays a leading role for directing and coordinating influence operations globally through its various front organisations. Other PRC government agencies involved in foreign influence operations are China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of State Security, and Ministry of Education. Among important entities used for the foreign influence operations are the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC), which describes itself as a “national people’s organization engaged in people-to-people diplomacy of the People’s Republic of China”. The Strategic Support Force linked Unit 61090 and its various front organisations are involved in manipulating the perceptions of targets.

There are indications that the Chinese influence operations have now acquired the dimensions of a cognitive warfare, which is more than the sum of various dimensions of information warfare (IW). It integrates all the elements available in the information, cyber and psychological domains and takes them to a new level not only by manipulating the perception of the target population but also by ensuring that the desired action from the targets is achieved. It includes psychological operations, neuro-science to manipulate cognitive capabilities of targets and implementation of social engineering. In this warfare, human mind becomes the battlefield. In simple terms, this is weaponization of public opinion for their advantage.

For India, the increasing Chinese influence operations are worrisome and China considers India as a rival in the Indian Ocean. There is a strong case for in-depth investigation of the Chinese activities in India and their consequences including the Chinese infiltration into the Indian society, economy and political circles, where the freedom enjoyed by political leaders and their propensity to use the social tensions for electoral advantages could be easily exploited. They are also penetrating into academic and business communities, which can be extremely harmful for economy and security of the country. This demands that conferences and seminars organised by the Chinese agencies must be kept in sharper focus. This invisible threat could be more harmful than the muscular challenge. This deserves attention not only of India but of all countries in the region.